TransportMedium Risk

Nairobi Eastern Bypass Toll Road

Kenya · East Africa · Concession

Deal Size

$680M

Target IRR

11–14%

PPP Model

Concession

Concession Term

25 years

Stable YieldUser-Pay

Deal Summary

A 48km greenfield toll road concession forming the eastern arc of Nairobi's outer ring road. The project relieves chronic congestion in Kenya's fastest-growing industrial corridor, connecting Thika Road to Mombasa Road.

Background

Nairobi's road network is operating at 140% capacity. The Eastern Bypass reduces cross-city commute times by an estimated 35 minutes daily for 180,000+ vehicles. The Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) has completed land acquisition for 92% of the corridor.

Project Milestone Timeline

Feasibility Complete

Q2 2024Completed

RFP Issued

Q4 2024Completed

Preferred Bidder

Q2 2025Completed

Financial Close

Q4 2025In Progress

Construction Start

Q1 2026Upcoming

Operations

Q2 2029Upcoming

Key Deal Risks & Mitigation

Traffic demand shortfall

Medium

Govt minimum revenue guarantee (65% for 7 years)

KES/USD currency mismatch

Medium

USD-linked tariff escalation clause

Construction cost overrun

Low

Fixed-price EPC contract with performance bond

Political interference

Low

ICSID arbitration clause, MIGA coverage